We cannot determine the orbit of the development, because the whole period is so vast and only a small fraction is known to us, but this is enough to show that there is a definite course.
Kant thinks that such a "cosmopolitical" history, as he calls it, is possible, and that if it were written it would give us a clew opening up "a consolatory prospect into futurity, in which at a remote distance we shall discover the human species seated upon an eminence won by infinite toil, where all the germs are unfolded which nature has implanted and its own destination upon this earth accomplished." 3.
But to see the full bearing of Kant's discussion we must understand its connection with his ethics.

For his ethical theory is the foundation and the motive of his speculation on Progress.

The progress on which he lays stress is moral amelioration; he refers little to scientific or material progress.

For him morality was an absolute obligation founded in the nature of reason.

Such an obligation presupposes an end to be attained, and this end is a reign of reason under which all men obeying the moral law mutually treat each other as ends in themselves.