He believed that, if the Powers of Europe exercised no influence, the War would last for years.

He conceived that the Independence of the South must be recognized sooner or later; and in his opinion the Governments of Europe should be on the watch for a favourable opportunity of doing this in such a manner as to end the War.
The present opportunity would however, he thought, be particularly unfavourable." Lyons writes: "I did not express any opinion as to the policy to be eventually pursued by France or England, but I told Monsieur Mercier that I entirely agreed with him in thinking that there was nothing to do at the present moment but to watch events." On the day following this interview, Lyons spoke to Seward of Mercier's trip and was given a very different view of the situation at Richmond.
Seward said: "He himself was quite convinced, from Monsieur Mercier's account of what had passed, that the Confederates were about to make a last effort, that their last resources were brought into play; that their last Armies were in the field.

If they were now defeated, they would accept the terms which would be offered them.

Their talking of retiring into the interior was idle.

If the United States were undisputed masters of the Border States and the Sea Coast, there would be no occasion for any more fighting.