[The New Physics and Its Evolution by Lucien Poincare]@TWC D-Link bookThe New Physics and Its Evolution CHAPTER XI 1/20
THE FUTURE OF PHYSICS It would doubtless be exceedingly rash, and certainly very presumptuous, to seek to predict the future which may be reserved for physics.
The role of prophet is not a scientific one, and the most firmly established previsions of to-day may be overthrown by the reality of to-morrow. Nevertheless, the physicist does not shun an extrapolation of some little scope when it is not too far from the realms of experiment; the knowledge of the evolution accomplished of late years authorises a few suppositions as to the direction in which progress may continue. The reader who has deigned to follow me in the rapid excursion we have just made through the domain of the science of Nature, will doubtless bring back with him from his short journey the general impression that the ancient limits to which the classic treatises still delight in restricting the divers chapters of physics, are trampled down in all directions. The fine straight roads traced out by the masters of the last century, and enlarged and levelled by the labour of such numbers of workmen, are now joined together by a crowd of small paths which furrow the field of physics.
It is not only because they cover regions as yet little explored where discoveries are more abundant and more easy, that these cross-cuts are so frequent, but also because a higher hope guides the seekers who engage in these new routes. In spite of the repeated failures which have followed the numerous attempts of past times, the idea has not been abandoned of one day conquering the supreme principle which must command the whole of physics. Some physicists, no doubt, think such a synthesis to be impossible of realisation, and that Nature is infinitely complex; but, notwithstanding all the reserves they may make, from the philosophical point of view, as to the legitimacy of the process, they do not hesitate to construct general hypotheses which, in default of complete mental satisfaction, at least furnish them with a highly convenient means of grouping an immense number of facts till then scattered abroad. Their error, if error there be, is beneficial, for it is one of those that Kant would have classed among the fruitful illusions which engender the indefinite progress of science and lead to great and important co-ordinations. It is, naturally, by the study of the relations existing between phenomena apparently of very different orders that there can be any hope of reaching the goal; and it is this which justifies the peculiar interest accorded to researches effected in the debatable land between domains hitherto considered as separate. Among all the theories lately proposed, that of the ions has taken a preponderant place; ill understood at first by some, appearing somewhat singular, and in any case useless, to others, it met at its inception, in France at least, with only very moderate favour. To-day things have greatly changed, and those even who ignored it have been seduced by the curious way in which it adapts itself to the interpretation of the most recent experiments on very different subjects.
A very natural reaction has set in; and I might almost say that a question of fashion has led to some exaggerations. The electron has conquered physics, and many adore the new idol rather blindly.
Certainly we can only bow before an hypothesis which enables us to group in the same synthesis all the discoveries on electric discharges and on radioactive substances, and which leads to a satisfactory theory of optics and of electricity; while by the intermediary of radiating heat it seems likely to embrace shortly the principles of thermodynamics also.
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