[The Economic Consequences of the Peace by John Maynard Keynes]@TWC D-Link bookThe Economic Consequences of the Peace CHAPTER V 72/118
Of the balance, 12 per cent went to Austria-Hungary, Turkey, and Bulgaria, and 35 per cent elsewhere.
Unless, therefore, the present Allies are prepared to encourage the importation of German products, a substantial increase in total volume can only be effected by the wholesale swamping of neutral markets. GERMAN TRADE (1913) ACCORDING TO DESTINATION AND ORIGIN. -- --------------------+--------------------+-------------------- | Destination of | Origin of | Germany's Exports | Germany's Imports -- --------------------+--------------------+-------------------- | Million Per cent | Million Per cent | Dollars | Dollars Great Britain | 359.55 14.2 | 219.00 8.1 India | 37.65 1.5 | 135.20 5.0 Egypt | 10.85 0.4 | 29.60 1.1 Canada | 15.10 0.6 | 16.00 0.6 Australia | 22.10 0.9 | 74.00 2.8 South Africa | 11.70 0.5 | 17.40 0.6 | ------ -- -- | ------ ---- Total: British Empire | 456.95 18.1 | 491.20 18.2 | | France | 197.45 7.8 | 146.05 5.4 Belgium | 137.75 5.5 | 86.15 3.2 Italy | 98.35 3.9 | 79.40 3.0 U.S.A.
| 178.30 7.1 | 427.80 15.9 Russia | 220.00 8.7 | 356.15 13.2 Roumania | 35.00 1.4 | 19.95 0.7 Austria-Hungary | 276.20 10.9 | 206.80 7.7 Turkey | 24.60 1.0 | 18.40 0.7 Bulgaria | 7.55 0.3 | 2.00 ... Other countries | 890.20 35.3 | 858.70 32.0 | ------ -- -- | ------ ---- | 2,522.35 100.0 | 2,692.60 100.0 -- --------------------+--------------------+-------------------- The above analysis affords some indication of the possible magnitude of the maximum modification of Germany's export balance under the conditions which will prevail after the Peace.
On the assumptions (1) that we do not specially favor Germany over ourselves in supplies of such raw materials as cotton and wool (the world's supply of which is limited), (2) that France, having secured the iron-ore deposits, makes a serious attempt to secure the blast-furnaces and the steel trade also, (3) that Germany is not encouraged and assisted to undercut the iron and other trades of the Allies in overseas market, and (4) that a substantial preference is not given to German goods in the British Empire, it is evident by examination of the specific items that not much is practicable. Let us run over the chief items again: (1) Iron goods.
In view of Germany's loss of resources, an increased net export seems impossible and a large decrease probable.
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