It is for those who believe that Germany can make an annual payment amounting to hundreds of millions sterling to say _in what specific commodities_ they intend this payment to be made and _in what markets_ the goods are to be sold.

Until they proceed to some degree of detail, and are able to produce some tangible argument in favor of their conclusions, they do not deserve to be believed.[131] I make three provisos only, none of which affect the force of my argument for immediate practical purposes.
_First_: if the Allies were to "nurse" the trade and industry of Germany for a period of five or ten years, supplying her with large loans, and with ample shipping, food, and raw materials during that period, building up markets for her, and deliberately applying all their resources and goodwill to making her the greatest industrial nation in Europe, if not in the world, a substantially larger sum could probably be extracted thereafter; for Germany is capable of very great productivity.
_Second_: whilst I estimate in terms of money, I assume that there is no revolutionary change in the purchasing power of our unit of value.

If the value of gold were to sink to a half or a tenth of its present value, the real burden of a payment fixed in terms of gold would be reduced proportionately.

If a sovereign comes to be worth what a shilling is worth now, then, of course, Germany can pay a larger sum than I have named, measured in gold sovereigns.
_Third_: I assume that there is no revolutionary change in the yield of Nature and material to man's labor.

It is not _impossible_ that the progress of science should bring within our reach methods and devices by which the whole standard of life would be raised immeasurably, and a given volume of products would represent but a portion of the human effort which it represents now.